Jurgen Klopp thinks Liverpool’s chances of winning the treble are “really unlikely”, but is he right? We run the numbers to estimate the true probability.
Klopp’s side, having already won the League Cup, are just one point behind leaders Manchester City as we enter the last seven games of the season after an impressive league unbeaten run that saw the champions’ 14-point lead seemingly invincible on 15 January. .
Liverpool to play Manchester United next Tuesday, game live sky sports from 19h.
Meanwhile, Liverpool will also face Villarreal in the Champions League semi-finals, with the first leg at Anfield on 27 April and the second leg at El Madrigal on 3 May.
In total, Liverpool will face a grueling schedule of nine games in April, followed by another seven games in May, including the FA Cup final if they also qualify for the Champions League final.
At the start of the season, the chances of Liverpool doing the unthinkable and winning the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup were 0.02%.
By comparison, statistically, Gary Neville will be the next leader of the Conservative Party or Romelu Lukaku will win the Ballon d’Or this year, not Liverpool will win the treble at the start of the season.
This is a probability that was equivalent to 3000/1 when converted to fractional odds by Sky Bet. Fast forward and after Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final win, Liverpool have a 12.5 per cent chance of finishing the season with all four trophies in their cabinet, which translates into a 7/1 odds.
Klopp’s “really unlikely” description of the challenge ahead understandably underestimates what is actually quite achievable. Liverpool fans have every right to be excited, especially the two Sky Bet players who backed Klopp’s men to win four trophies in August with huge odds.
“Two clients who each bet £30 at 2000/1 are sure to succeed next month,” the post reads. Heavenly rates Sports Communications Manager, Michael Schinners.
How Sky Bet Quadruple Odds Collapsed…
- Start of season August: 3000/1
- September: 1000/1
- February: 100/1 to win Carabao Cup final
- March: 33/1 after winning the Carabao Cup
- April: 14/1 after 2-2 draw at Etihad
- Now: 01/07
“With the Quadruple stage already behind us and the second final confirmed, Liverpool fans will be very excited. The current odds on the last three trophies won are now just 7/1. »
Chance of winning the Premier League = 35%*
Of the three remaining competitions, Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League are the most unlikely.
Here, most likely, the quadruple rate will fall.
A 2-2 draw between the Reds and Manchester City has put the Premier League title in the balance, but Pep Guardiola’s side are still favorites. After peaking at 12/1 in mid-January, Liverpool are now only 7/4 with Sky Bet to win their second title in three seasons, about a 35 per cent chance.
In the analysis of the remaining games, Liverpool will be seen as favorites to win every game as they have a 50% or more chance of scoring three points unless there is an injury crisis or severe team turnover. Their toughest fixtures on paper are away trips to Aston Villa and Newcastle in good form, but even so, Klopp’s men will have every chance of winning those games by three points.
Liverpool last matches in the Premier League
- Manchester United (D) Tuesday 19 April live on Sky Sports.
- Everton (D), Sunday 24 April live on Sky Sports.
- Newcastle (A), Saturday 30 April.
- Tottenham (H), Saturday 7 May
- Aston Villa (A), Tuesday 10 May live on Sky Sports.
- Southampton (A), Sunday 15 May live on Sky Sports.
- Wolves (H), Sunday, May 22
The chance of Liverpool winning all of their remaining seven Premier League games and scoring 94 points is around 14%, according to Sky Bet odds. So this would lead to a scenario in which Klopp’s men would have taken 52 of the last 54 points available in a season with a draw at Manchester City, their only points having been lost in the last 18 league games. If they had won every game, no other team in Premier League history would have scored more points in the last 18 games.
Currently, of the remaining Man City teams, only West Ham and Wolverhampton are in the top eight.
The Steven Gerrard factor should also be considered. Although the former Liverpool captain has never managed to win the Premier League on his own, he has his say in this title race.
The Reds will play this match at Villa Park with their former captain-now Aston Villa manager on 10 May, with City finishing the season at home against them on 22 May.
A titanic battle awaits you.
Chance to win the FA Cup = 66%*
With just one game away from the trophy, Liverpool’s chances of winning the FA Cup are the most likely of the three trophies on the table, despite Klopp never having won the national cup.
The Reds will be looking to win their first FA Cup since 2006 when they take on Chelsea in the final on 14 May.
Klopp’s side put on a brilliant first-half performance to thank Manchester City in the semi-final which opened the way to a 3-2 win at Wembley, while Chelsea beat Crystal Palace on Sunday to join them in what would be a repeat of the League Cup. . the final. It was a very tense match in which the teams were separated by penalties.
However, Liverpool are heading towards this latest favorite to lift the trophy in pursuit of history.
Chance of winning the Champions League = 44%*
Looking at the odds, Liverpool have a better chance of winning the Champions League than the Premier League.
Villarreal are waiting for them in the semi-finals, where they are big favorites to progress, but Unai Emery’s side have shown their tenacity in this competition, having already beaten Juventus and Bayern.
Champions League schedule
- Manchester City – Real Madrid, Tuesday 26 April.
- Liverpool v Villarreal Wednesday 27th April
- Villarreal v Liverpool, Tuesday 3 May.
- Real Madrid v Man City, Wednesday 4 May.
- Champions League Final, Saturday 28 May.
If they reach the second final in a row, Manchester City can expect them if they win a draw against Real Madrid. That could seal fate on May 28 in Paris, where Liverpool could be one game away from the treble.
They couldn’t, could they?
*Probability calculated using percentage-adjusted values that exclude Sky Bet market margin.
11 Liverpool games on the road to glory…
April 19 – Manchester United (H) Premier Leaguelive on SkySports
April 24 – Everton (M) Premier Leaguelive on SkySports
April 27 – Villarreal (H) First leg of San Francisco Champions League
April 30 – Newcastle (A) Premier League
May 3 – Villarreal (A) San Francisco Champions League second leg
May 7 – Tottenham (H) Premier League
May 10 – Villa Aston (A) Premier Leaguelive on SkySports
May 14 – FA Cup Final vs Chelsea
May 15 – Southampton (A) Premier League
22nd of May – Wolves (D) Premier League
May 28 – Champions League Final*
* Depending on progress